All over the place

Here are some examples of the dodgy numbers used in the smoking debate.

In June 2009, The Irish Independent reported that "New figures from the Department of Health put the overall smoking rate at 29%, compared to 27% in 2002". So smoking rates went up after the ban (in 2004). No great surprise there then.

Then in Feb, 2011, they report that "23.6% smoke; down 3.8% since 2008". So, the best brains at the Indo will have you believe that the smoking rates were running at 27% in 2002, 27.4% in 2008, 29% in 2009 and 23.6% in 2011. If you add the Office of Tobacco Control claim of 23.5% in 2006, and Brian Maurer from ASH putting it at 29% in 2011, we Irish are all over the place.

If you are a bit of a cynic, you might suggest that all of this is guesswork, at best. What is not guesswork however, are the hard numbers from Customs & Excise. The Revenue from tobacco for 2008, 2009 & 2010, were a constant €1.5bn. This figure does not factor in smuggled goods of course.

The Indo apparently will not print anything from Forest Eireann, but if they did, I could further confuse them with the following fact. In August 2011, Eurostat reported that 31% of the Irish population smoke. And I could confuse them even more by suggesting that any smoker today, that was asked if they smoke, would most probably deny it to avoid disapproval.

Gas isn't it!